Perusing the numerous legal blogs out there, I came across an interesting article about who Obama will choose for the next SCOTUS appointee. The blogger, E.J. Dionne over at the Washington Post, has come to the conclusion that Obama will choose current Solicitor General  Elena Kagan as Justice Souter’s replacement. I would tend to agree with this choice as well, although the fact that Kagan was just approved for Solicitor General and asking her to be the next Justice would mean that he would have to have Kagan successfully nominated AND find someone else to replace Kagan at her position. Dionne lays out his arguments below:

“Just about everyone believes that Obama will name a woman to the court, since having only one woman justice makes little sense. There is also a widespread view that Obama wants to name the first Latino justice. That makes sense, too, not only because Latinos voted overwhelming for Obama, but also because it is long past time for this barrier be broken. Putting two plus two together, many in Washington have concluded that this means Obama will name a Latina. There are certainly well-qualified Hispanic women for the Court, notably Judge Sonia Sotomayor from the Second Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals. Sotomayor certainly has to be ranked as a front-runner, and she has a compelling personal story. She grew up poor in Bronx public housing and went on to graduate from Princeton summa cum laude and then Yale Law School.”

So far, Dionne seems to lay out the argument that Sotomayor is the most likely front-runner for the new SCOTUS opening. But the twist comes from the fact that it has been pointed out several times that President Obama will likely get two more Supreme Court nominations during his time as President. Where I agree with Dionne is in his theory that Obama will want to avoid having his first Supreme Court nomination held up in confirmation hearings or the vetting process. So in order to play it safe, Kagan becomes a favorite over Sotomayor, who has generated some interesting stories (some news articles have commented on Sotomayor’s temperament) which might lead to friction during a confirmation hearing. Relating back to the statement that Obama will likely get two more SCOTUS appointments, Obama can play it safe by choosing someone who will have relatively little trouble getting the nod (Kagan was approved by 61 votes) this time around and then we can see how well (or poorly) she does as a new Justice. If Kagan does well, it will help make Obama seem like he has a good eye and will likely make his next nomination (probably when Ginsberg retires next) easier. At that time, Obama can select a latino/latina to the High Court. 

One final point that might also be worth noting is that Kagan comes from Harvard blood, just like President Obama. Kagan received her J.D. from Harvard, and is a former Harvard Dean to boot. And we all know how President Obama likes his appointments filled by Harvardites, and his initial transition team was filled with former Harvard colleagues. They were essential to his Presidential campaign, and even to this day his Harvard ties show through. All this means is that Sotomayor, as compelling a choice as she seems to be (grew up poor in the Bronx, made her way through life and attended Yale Law, a success story any way you really spin it) is likely to get the shaft this time around. Sotomayor, you simply went to the wrong law school. Six of the current SCOTUS Justices are Harvard-related, and it seems President Obama would be content to continue this trend. Sorry Sonia. Maybe next time!